Think Like a Freak

This chapter reviews the process of learning, starting with the relatively rare occurrence of admitting one doesn’t know something. As the authors write, “It has long been said that the three hardest words to say in the English language are I love you. We heartily disagree! For most people, it is much harder to say I don’t know” (20). Instead, people constantly make predictions about things that turn out to be wrong. When researcher Philip Tetlock studied the predictions of more than 300 experts in myriad fields for more than 20 years, he found the experts to be no better than a computer programmed to make extrapolations. Predictions to complicated issues are so difficult because there are often several influential factors, not just one cause.

Despite people being so bad at making predictions, they continue to do so. The authors give three reasons for this. First, people get short-term benefits from predicting future events. If they’ve built up a reputation as an expert, it’s a way of feeding the myth. And if they happen to be right, they gain much personal acclaim, not to mention the ability to cash in on their expert status. Second, there are rarely any consequences when they’re wrong. If people even remember (most people will move on), no one follows up to hold them accountable, so they lose nothing. However, the most important reason is dogmatism, “an unshakable belief they know something to be true even when they don’t” (24). When people hold to a belief or system of values, it prevents any evidence from altering their viewpoint.

The best way to learn about something to make better predictions is through feedback. Getting feedback is a matter of making observations, either in real life or through experiments. The former is often better because controlled experiments can involve unnatural conditions that cause people to alter their behavior. The authors describe a retail chain they consulted for, which always bought ads in the Sunday newspapers of major markets. When this came up, they learned the company had no information about how effective this strategy was. The only bit of feedback came by mistake: One year, an intern forgot to set up the ads in Pittsburgh so none ran there during the summer months. When Levitt and Dubner looked at the numbers, it turned out that sales in that city did not dip at all. Yet the company continued to buy ads because it had always been done.

Experimenting to gather feedback is actually quite rare, due in part to companies maintaining old ways and not rocking the boat. It can also be difficult or daunting to set up experiments, so people avoid it. Most importantly, though, is that “it requires someone to say ‘I don’t know’” (39). People who think they know the answers (as many people do) never look into other possibilities. Sometimes the only way to get to the bottom of something is to admit you don’t know the answer and investigate it with a fresh pair of eyes.