The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Taleb continues to explore the tendency to creative narratives as a key characteristic of human nature. He refers to this as the "narrative fallacy” since it generally represents lapses in sound logic. According to Taleb, "the fallacy is associated with our vulnerability to overinterpretation and our predilection for compact stories over raw truths" (63). When we condense Black Swans to story-version summaries, we are better able to process events. Instead of relying on empirical data, we tend to make assumptions about the future by looking to anecdotal observations that fit the narratives we have constructed.

Taleb also points to our collective tendency to see history as linear, through causality, "which makes time flow in a single direction, and so does narrativity" (70). Despite Taleb's conviction that narrative fallacy is an instinctive manifestation of human nature, he argues that there are ways to avoid it: "favor experimentation over storytelling, experience over history, and clinical knowledge over theories" (84). By relying more heavily on empirical evidence, we reduce the possibility of creating false narratives that distort our view of history.

Taleb brings Yevgenia Krasnova back into the spotlight. He illustrates how the world can essentially be divided into two categories. On the one hand, there are people—like the turkey—who are completely oblivious to Black Swans of any kind, while others live in expectation of Black Swans that may shock others. These differing categories require completely different worldviews and ideologies, which are altogether defining of how one understands the world. Taleb crafts a story where Krasnova is hopeful for positive Black Swans in her life, as "she did not mind the sweet trap of anticipation" (93).

The central theme of this chapter is the power of the unpredictable, as Yevgenia derives ecstatic hopefulness in anticipation of a positive Black Swan. Her entire system of thought is predicated on the belief that Black Swans not only exist, but that they can permanently change your life for the better.

Taleb explains the concept of "silent evidence." This refers to the idea that there are concealed aspects in any historical account; they have remained "silent" due to distortions usually caused by biases in the retelling of historical events. Taleb uses the example of Diagoras, a Greek poet who lived in the 5th century BC. After being shown painted tablets of praying worshippers who survived a shipwreck, Diagoras asked about the other worshippers who had also prayed but died by drowning. The "silent evidence" of the drowned worshippers would be an untold story, and the inference that praying can save your life would be logically unsound.

Another key component of silent evidence is its connection to luck. Taleb cites the example of Giacomo Casanova, the famous Italian adventurer most known for his reputation as a seducer of women. Casanova genuinely believed that he was somehow intrinsically destined to have good luck. Every time he met adversity, somehow, he would avoid disaster. The silent evidence on the flipside of Casanova's story are the stories of countless others who were not as fortunate as Casanova.

Taleb's point is that we cannot seek to corroborate our understanding of history through successes more than failures. When we interpret historical events solely through the eyes of the survivors or victors, we disregard the untold, silent evidence. When we ignore the silent evidence, our understanding of Black Swans is tainted by limited perceptions of reality. Thematically, this chapter alludes to the limitations of human knowledge, since often the silent evidence in a historical event is virtually unknowable. The limitations of human knowledge are not borne out of a malicious desire to cover up or obscure valuable information but instead indicate of our inevitable fallibility.