Factfulness

Nonfiction | Book | Adult | Published in 2018

A modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality Study Guides with detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, and more.

Download PDF

Summary

Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Introduction-Chapter 1

Chapters 2-3

Chapters 4-5

Chapters 6-7

Chapters 8-9

Chapters 10-11

Key Figures

Themes

Index of Terms

Important Quotes

Essay Topics

Tools

Beta

Discussion Questions

Chapters 2-3Chapter Summaries & Analyses

Chapter 2 Summary: “The Negativity Instinct”

A poll of people in thirty countries across the four income levels returned that “[t]he majority of people think the world is getting worse” (51). In fact, Rosling presents data showing the exact opposite. Twenty years ago, 29% of the world’s population lived on Level 1. Today, only 9% of the world lives in abject poverty. People are living better than they ever have, yet people everywhere still believe living conditions are getting worse. Rosling partly attributes this belief to news media showing a disproportionate number of stories about poverty-stricken areas, but again, the main fault goes to the observer who does not seek out fact-based information.

The negativity instinct is “our instinct to notice the bad more than the good” (65). Rosling outlines three causes for this instinct: a misremembering of the past, selective news reporting, and the idea that saying conditions are better sounds heartless when bad things are going on. In particular, Rosling urges the reader not to fall into the news trap. Positive change is often small and ignored in favor of larger, more dramatic stories. Remembering that conditions are improving even though they may be difficult in places and that the past is not perfect helps combat the negativity instinct.

Chapter 3 Summary: “The Straight Line Instinct”

During Africa’s Ebola pandemic in 2014, Rosling discovered that cases were increasing much faster than anyone thought. Rather than a predictable straight line, Ebola cases were doubling, and in only three weeks, twice as many cases were identified. This doubling put an enormous strain on medical personnel, resources, and, soon, the world.

The straight line instinct is “[t]he instinct to assume that lines are straight” (78). Believing Ebola cases increased along a straight line almost caused a global crisis. Lines are rarely straight, and to illustrate this concept, Rosling compares the growth of babies and world population. In the first six months of life, a baby might grow several inches. If the baby’s assumed growth continues at this rate until adulthood, the result is unprecedented height. As we know, a human’s growth levels off in childhood. The line of growth does not continue straight along the projected path from those first six months of infancy. Rosling uses the same line to show world population growth. At first glance, it appears the population is rising with no end in sight and that something drastic must be done to flatten the curve; however, as more countries rise to Levels 3 and 4, women have access to better education and contraceptives. Families decide to have fewer children, and the population, like a child’s growth, levels off.

The straight line instinct leads to many big-scale misconceptions and misinterpretations of data. The most important element in controlling this instinct is to remember that “curves naturally come in lots of different shapes” (93). Straight lines are less common than other graph shapes like “S” shapes, slides, humps, and doublings. Graphs also show only a short-term view of data, which does not necessarily predict long-term change accurately.

Chapters 2-3 Analysis

Chapter 2 introduces the second mega misconception—that things everywhere are worsening. Rosling’s findings that people everywhere believe things are getting worse shows the potential strength of the human desire for drama. We tend to want to believe things are getting worse because it allows us to justify feeling scared. People feel uncomfortable when they feel good about their situation, especially when they know others are not so fortunate; in this way, guilt drives the negativity instinct. Particularly on Level 4, people see images of those on Level 1 struggling and form the belief that life everywhere else is this difficult. Rosling points out that beliefs are not facts, but beliefs help us form images that become our reality. If left unchecked, the negativity instinct leads to depression and anxiety, eliminating our ability to think rationally.

Rosling’s anecdote about the Ebola curve shows the importance of understanding data and subscribing to a fact-based worldview. Accurate data and a calm, rational mindset allowed health workers and people in affected areas to take steps toward stopping the spread of Ebola and containing the virus. That Ebola did not become a crisis illustrates how a fact-based worldview allows individuals to make better decisions by not allowing emotions to get in the way of understanding. If Rosling and others had allowed their negativity instinct to drag them into believing Ebola was a hopeless case, many more lives would have been lost.

The third mega misconception Rosling addresses is the growth of world population. Short-term graphs and history show a bleak image of the world being overrun while resources are depleted. As Rosling shows, the population curve is already flattening and drastic action is not necessary. Two important concepts are at work here: the idea that drastic action is not the solution and the notion that humans have control over their environment. Dire-looking conditions, like the steep curve of population growth, trigger our negativity instinct. It seems as though catastrophe is imminent and that something must be done immediately. In reality, solutions are often smaller and less dramatic than we would believe. Simply giving more people access to education, healthcare, and contraceptives allows them to live better lives and to decide to have fewer children, thus flattening the population curve. The Ebola crisis had potentially catastrophic consequences that required drastic action to stop the spread of a devastating disease, but the Ebola situation is the exception. A little progress everywhere solves many problems, but we don’t see this progress because it’s not dramatic. The slow flattening of the population curve is unable to satiate our desire for drama and prompts worry over a problem that is already being fixed.