Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder

Taleb references Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900), the famed 19th-century German philosopher, several times in the book. He draws on Nietzsche’s concept of the love of fate (amor fati), for instance, which encourages individuals to embrace the unpredictability of their lives, thereby viewing adversity as an opportunity for growth. Taleb also alludes to Nietzsche’s ideas about the importance of risk-taking and experimentation, arguing that individuals and systems that are overly risk-averse ultimately become fragile, unable to adapt to the circumstances of a changing landscape. In The Birth of Tragedy, Nietzsche opposed the Dionysian to the Apollonian in ancient Greek thought and culture, and he argued that the Apollonian—the forces of order and rationality—had overtaken the Dionysian—the forces of disorder and disruption in Western civilization. Nietzsche took as his task the restoration of the rightful place of the Dionysian. Some scholars have suggested that Taleb’s writings on disorder and chance have been directly influenced by Nietzsche on the Dionysian element.

Sir Karl Popper was an Austrian-British philosopher (1902-1994). Taleb draws on Popper’s philosophy of science, particularly his well-known ideas about falsifiability. Popper wrote that for a statement to be properly scientific, it should be capable of being falsified or disproved empirically. If we can never disprove it—for example, because it’s an abstract statement about a metaphysical entity like God—then the statement is not a scientific one (though it could still be a true statement). A classic example used to illustrate falsifiability speaks of white and black swans: If we say that all swans are white, then the observation of a black swan is capable of falsifying the statement. This example gave the title to Taleb’s book, The Black Swan. Popper is referenced in Antifragile as a key influence on his ideas about epistemology and the scientific method. Within Popper’s broader theoretical framework also lie the concepts of trial and error and experimentation, which Taleb argues are crucial for developing antifragile systems.

Daniel Kahneman (born 1934) is an Israeli American psychologist and economist, most known for his work on the psychological factors that affect decision making in the field of behavioral economics. He won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002, shared with Vernon L. Smith. In Antifragile, Taleb draws on Kahneman’s research on cognitive biases and heuristics to argue that individuals and systems often overestimate the predictability of the future, thus underestimating the potential for unforeseen events. He also references Kahneman’s idea of “the planning fallacy,” which suggests that people often have an optimistic bias when making plans and therefore fail to account for the potential for setbacks or even failures.

Joseph Schumpeter (1883-1950) was an Austrian economist who later became a professor at Harvard. In Antifragile, Taleb refers to Schumpeter’s ideas about the role of creative destruction in driving economic growth and innovation. In his famous work Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (1942), Schumpeter called it a “gale of creative destruction” that “ continuously revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one.” The idea has been traced to Marx’s analysis of capitalism. Taleb draws on Schumpeter to explain and praise the property he calls antifragility. Taleb also references Schumpeter’s ideas about the importance of experimentation and risk-taking, arguing that individuals and systems that are too risk-averse become fragile, as their inability to adapt to changing circumstances eventually prevents their long-term growth or even survival.

Benoit Mandelbrot (1924-2010) was a French American mathematician most known for his work on fractals and his theory that the world is characterized by self-similar patterns at different scales. Taleb brings up Mandelbrot’s work on fractal geometry to argue that the patterns and structures of nature are often highly irregular and non-linear. He also references Mandelbrot’s concept of “long-tailed” distributions, which describes the prevalence of rare and extreme events in many systems, to develop his ideas about the importance of tail risk and the need for antifragile systems that can withstand such events.

Plato (roughly 428-348 BC) was a Greek philosopher who lived during the Classical period in Athens. He was the most prominent disciple of Socrates, who left no written works. Along with Aristotle, Plato is considered the founder of the Western philosophical tradition. Taleb references Plato’s ideas about dialectical and critical thinking to argue for the importance of challenging assumptions and seeking out different perspectives. Additionally, Taleb discusses Plato’s philosophy of knowledge in order to develop his ideas about the limits of knowledge and the importance of skepticism. However, Taleb also critiques Plato on several points. Taleb is critical, for example, of Plato’s concept of the “philosopher-king,” arguing that it is impossible to predict who will be the best leaders and that systems should be designed to be antifragile regardless of who is in charge. Furthermore, Taleb follows Nietzsche in criticizing Plato’s role in disrupting the balance between the Apollonian and the Dionysian.

Gerd Gigerenzer (born 1947) is a German psychologist who is referenced throughout Antifragile. Taleb draws on Gigerenzer’s work on heuristics and decision-making to argue that simple rules of thumb can often be more effective than complex models in uncertain and complex environments. He also references Gigerenzer’s concept of ecological reasoning, which describes the use of heuristics that are adapted to specific environments, to develop his ideas about the importance of local knowledge and bottom-up decision-making.